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Analytical reviews

UKRSIBBANK provides customers with analysis of fixed-income hryvnia instruments and the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine. Hryvnia sovereign, corporate and municipal bonds are subject to analysis. The analytics also includes macroeconomic forecasts and an assessment of the impact of political and significant corporate events in Ukraine on the economy and bond markets.

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Analytical reviews of 2020-2021

Feb 17, 2022  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Inflation is sticky and NBU is likely to tighten…
Feb 03, 2022  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Current account figures support our conservative UAH expectations
Jan 19, 2022  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Fiscal deficit is still small, but funding pressure will grow
Dec 22, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Slow disinflation and global tightening cycle may prompt new rate hikes
Dec 08, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Gas price crisis threatens to derail recovery in 2022
Nov 10, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. USD/UAH: strong for now, weaker later
Oct 22, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU holds key rate unchanged
Oct 06, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Evergrande likely to induce pressure on UAH in the medium run
Sep 09, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU delivers another rate hike to anchor inflation expectations
Sep 02, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. GDP growth remains robust even in rocky recovery
Aug 18, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Inflation goes into double-digits, yet is expected to normalize soon
Aug 05, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Better prospects for UAH despite growing imports
Jul 22, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Running hot inflation triggers another rate hike
Jul 01, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Economy is firm on the recovery track
Jun 17, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU restrains from further policy tightening
Jun 03, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Renewable energy in Ukraine: slower and smarter
May 20, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Steel and iron ore exports roar back
Apr 28, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Recovery appears to be on track
Apr 15, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU delivers 100bp hike, signals unchanged key rate until year-end
Mar 31, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Muddling through lockdowns
Mar 05, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU pivots from backing growth to fighting inflation
Feb 17, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine closes out 4Q20 with better than expected GDP growth
Feb 04, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine's current account data are supportive for hryvnia
Jan 21, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU leaves key rate unchanged, holds dovish tone
Jan 14, 2021  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU reserves up 15% in 2020 on healthy trade and buoyant capital markets
Dec 16, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine is likely to see a marginal key rate hike in 2021
Dec 03, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Fiscal flows in December: higher liquidity but not necessarily weaker UAH
Nov 18, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Better than expected 3Q GDP lends little support against resurging pandemic
Nov 04, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Record current account surplus to reduce UAH devaluation risks
Oct 22, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU expectedly holds policy rate unchanged
Oct 08, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine's FX reserves dive driven by bond repayments
Sep 30, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Retail sales enjoy end-of-summer pickup in expenses
Sep 16, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Inflation struggles to enter target range amid weak demand
Sep 03, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU holds rate and hints of no plans to change policy
Aug 19, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Lengthy recovery ahead with new impediments along the road
Aug 05, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Abundant liquidity and soaring cash levels to test UAH strength in Q4
Jul 23, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU expectedly keeps interest rates on hold
Jul 15, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine’s inflation reaccelerating in line with our expectations
Jul 02, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine's’ BoP improving but risks are inside
Jun 17, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Fresh deal with IMF stands a chance of success
Jun 11, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. The end of sharp rate cuts
May 27, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Industry remains in the doldrums, retail erases recovery gains
May 13, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU steers reserves on the recovery path
May 06, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU cuts rate by 2pp, considers another move in June
Apr 08, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. IMF deal is crucial to withstand COVID impact
Mar 12, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU remains dovish and for a good reason
Mar 04, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Agro holds momentum, land reform to benefit in 2021
Feb 19, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine’s economy stumbled in 4Q, coronavirus may impede pick up
Feb 13, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Banking liquidity likely to stay elevated in 2020
Jan 30, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Further easing stays on NBU’s policy agenda
Jan 22, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. UAH: broadly stable as too many things went right
Jan 15, 2020  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. 300 bps cuts are likely in 1Q

Analytical reviews of 2012-2019

2019_4Q Dec 12, 2019. NBU ventures to a heavy cut in main rate
Dec 05, 2019. Increasing Agri-Food exports narrows CA deficit
Nov 28, 2019. Main trends in Ukrainian banking sector
Nov 13, 2019. External trade shows slight improvement
Nov 06, 2019. Fresh stats confirm mixed trends in the economy
Oct 24, 2019. NBU expectedly delivers aggressive key rate cut
Oct 17, 2019. Slowing inflation rises odds of another dovish verdict
Oct 10, 2019. CA remains stable, financial inflows to support FX reserves
2019_3Q Sep 26, 2019. Consumer recovery on its way while IP is weaker
Sep 18, 2019. Inflation cools amid strong local currency
Sep 12, 2019. Ukraine’s foreign reserves get healthier as exports improve
Sep 05, 2019. Seasonal improvement in BoP exceeded expectations
Aug 28, 2019. GDP growth contrasts with the weakness in industry
Aug 14, 2019. CPI is drifting away from the central bank’s target
Aug 08, 2019. CA deficit expands
Aug 01, 2019. Key trends in Ukraine local debt
Jul 24, 2019. Presidential party gets a majority in the Rada
Jul 17, 2019. Inflation slowdown in June may prove short-lived
Jul 10, 2019. Record strong UAH and growing FX reserves
Jul 03, 2019. Sovereign debt weights on BoP, but looks manageable
2019_2Q Jun 19, 2019. NBU puts rate cuts on hold
Jun 12, 2019. Inflation back on downward pace, but new risks loom up
Jun 05, 2019. Ukraine’s balance of payments surplus became a deficit
May 29, 2019. Industrial production records leave pleasant after-taste
May 22, 2019. Newly-inaugurated president went to the country
May 15, 2019. Ukraine inflation inches up in April
May 08, 2019. NBU increases FX purchases to build up reserves
Apr 24, 2019. Landslide victory of alternative candidate
Apr 17, 2019. Inflation stay on downward track
Apr 10, 2019. Reserves stay under pressure of FX debts
Apr 03, 2019. current account is back to deficit reading
2019_1Q Mar 27, 2019. Ukraine's economy grew by 3.3% in 2018, likely to decelerate
Mar 20, 2019. Key rate: hold for now, a cut in April is likely
Mar 06, 2019. Industrial production likely to be flat this year
Feb 27, 2019. Retail sales to grow faster than GDP
Feb 20, 2019. New consumer basket and lower inflation
Feb 05, 2019. Current account: supported by agri
Jan 29, 2019. Some easing ahead?
Jan 22, 2019. UAH: No seasonal depreciation… and what next?
Jan 15, 2019. Ukraine inflation just below double digits
Jan 09, 2019. Economy passing the peak
2018_4Q Dec 18, 2018. Budget: good performance in October
Dec 12, 2018. November inflation: new tariffs
Dec 04, 2018. Ukraine's trade balance kept running high deficit in October
Nov 27, 2018. IP and retail sales data: a mixed bag
Nov 21, 2018. Ukraine's banking liquidity December spike to be lower
Nov 13, 2018. Ukraine's inflation has gained momentum in October
Nov 06, 2018. Ukraine's external trade faces headwinds, downside risk for UAH
Oct 30, 2018. Retail sales lower, IP in red
Oct 23, 2018. Spring crops upbeat performance puts agri on a strong footing
Oct 16, 2018. Sep data display pressure stemming from energy price
Oct 09, 2018. C/A deficit in 8M18 overshoots NBU 2018 forecast
Oct 02, 2018. Ukraine economy shifted to a higher gear in 2Q18
2018_3Q Sep 11, 2018. CPI gets boost in August on a y/y basis; NBU hiked main rate
Sep 04, 2018. Ukraine's C/A deficit: hitting a milestone in July
Aug 28, 2018. Ukraine main economic indicators hold gains in July
Aug 21, 2018. Banking system loss in 2Q18 is of a non-recurring nature
Aug 14, 2018. Food prices weigh on CPI in July
Aug 07, 2018. Current account is a mixed bag
Jul 17, 2018. Inflation: down and up!
Jul 10, 2018. Record budget performance in May: one off
Jul 03, 2018. Worsening trade weighs on C/A
2018_2Q Jun 25, 2018. Growth in Q1 meets expectations
Jun 12, 2018. Ukraine's CPI: lower for now, but upside risks remain
Jun 05, 2018. Ukraine's current account delivers satisfactory performance
May 29, 2018. Economic growth is still strong
May 23, 2018. Banks enjoy growing incomes amid steady NPLs
May 15, 2018. CPI: disinflation is yet to come, expect no change in NBU rate
May 08, 2018. Ukraine's trade deficit soars expectedly, we retain conservative FX rate outlook
Apr 25, 2018. Household incomes are on the rise
Apr 17, 2018. MPC left rate on hold; consumer prices declined
Apr 10, 2018. Ukraine's sovereign debt has stabilized for now
Apr 03, 2018. NBU introduced corrections for private transfers
2018_1Q Mar 27, 2018. Growth to accelerate
Mar 20, 2018. Ukraine CPI: more deceleration to come!
Mar 05, 2018. Ukraine BoP: upbeat C/A, financial flows at a weak footing
Feb 27, 2018. Ukraine's central bank likely to stop tightening for now
Feb 20, 2018. UAH appreciation is done for now
Feb 13, 2018. Ukraine inflation continues to be high
Feb 06, 2018. Ukraine's BoP outperforming expectations now, facing strong headwind later
Jan 30, 2018. NBU hikes rate 3-d time in a row, sticking to a tight stance
Jan 23, 2018. UAH to appreciate on a 6-month horizon
Jan 16, 2018. Ukraine's inflation shatters old stereotypes
Jan 09, 2018. Ukraine sees some stabilization in current account, FX reserves
2017_4Q Dec 26, 2017. Ukraine's economy grows in nominal terms, boosting consumption and import
Dec 19, 2017. 2018 state budget: it is all about consumption
Dec 12, 2017. How likely is the interest rate hike this week in Ukraine?
Dec 04, 2017. No negative news for UAH, watch the liquidity in December
Nov 28, 2017. Ukraine 4Q growth is likely to surprise on a downside
Nov 21, 2017. Banks enjoy sufficient liquidity and strengthened capitalization
Nov 14, 2017. Ukraine's CPI decelerated in October
Nov 07, 2017. Debt placement offsets trade deficit, but downside risks for UAH increasing
Oct 30, 2017. Central bank tightening in Ukraine: a combination of economics and politics?
Oct 24, 2017. From the demand side the economy looks solid
Oct 10, 2017. Inflation in Ukraine continues to be on the rise in September
Oct 03, 2017. BoP turned positive due to lower C/A's deficit in August
2017_3Q Sep 25, 2017. Private consumption strengthened even further
Sep 05, 2017. BoP turned negative due to weak financial flows
Aug 28, 2017. Slowdown in July's key indicators likely to be temporary
Aug 15, 2017. Upward risks for inflation prevail
Aug 08, 2017. 1H2017 state budget performance surpasses expectations
Aug 01, 2017. Dividend payments widened CA deficit
Jul 25, 2017. Economy is moving slightly above expectations
Jul 17, 2017. Ukraine's current account deficit expanded
Jul 10, 2017. Raw food prices pushed CPI upwards
Jul 04, 2017. Ukraine's current account deficit expanded
2017_2Q Jun 27, 2017. Modest growth is likely to persist
Jun 13, 2017. CPI acceleration in May raises temporary concerns
Jun 07, 2017. Goods and services trade deficit is likely to persist
May 29, 2017. Moderate 1Q2017 GDP growth reflects existing imbalances
May 22, 2017. April's readings likely to set up further downward CPI trend
May 15, 2017. Interest payments on restructured bonds widened CA deficit
Apr 24, 2017. Trade blockade implications to materialize
Apr 10, 2017. Elevated inflation print likely to prevent NBU from aggressive cut
Apr 04, 2017. CA deficit widens, spelling more dependency on financial flows
2017_1Q Mar 28, 2017. Ukraine's growth likely to slow down marginally to 1.7% in 2017
Mar 20, 2017. Inflation spike with further deceleration prospects
Mar 14, 2017. Ukraine's current account narrows its deficit
Mar 06, 2017. Ukraine's growth unexpected rebound
Feb 21, 2017. Ukraine becomes the key stakeholder in its banking sector
Feb 13, 2017. Upward risks to CPI likely to weigh on NBU's policy easing
Feb 07, 2017. Ukraine's current account deficit to persist in the long term, to be offset by financial inflows
Jan 30, 2017. Ukrainian economy outperforms in 2016
Jan 24, 2017. 2017 State budget is ambitious yet feasible
Jan 16, 2017. Inflation hits the target, likely to decelerate further
2016_4Q Dec 15, 2016. Ukraine Macro outlook
Dec 12, 2016. Potential for further monetary easing to reappear in 2017
Dec 05, 2016. BoP likely to be positive in the long run despite trade deficit
Nov 28, 2016. Elevated steel prices help the economy to outperform in 2H 2016, with more headwinds next year
Nov 22, 2016. Lending revival has begun, although likely to remain slow
Nov 14, 2016. Inflation spike decreases probability of NBU hike in December
Nov 08, 2016. Doubling in minimal wage unlikely to threaten the economy
Oct 31, 2016. Weakness of the current account underscores the economy's structural fragility
Oct 25, 2016. With key reading in green, the economy confidently enters 2H
Oct 18, 2016. Growing deposits signal of recovering financial system
Oct 11, 2016. Rising inflation increases probability of no key rate cut
Oct 03, 2016. Current account deficit to keep widening
2016_3Q Sep 19, 2016. UAH is on track to gradually depreciate in spite of the IMF deal
Sep 13, 2016. CPI is likely to land at NBU target
Sep 06, 2016. Financial inflows are vital for UAH stability as current account deteriorates
Aug 30, 2016. Wage growth deceleration is likely to weight down domestic consumption in 2H 2016
Aug 23, 2016. July 2016 readings of retail sales showed a 4.5% y/y growth whereas industrial production grew by 7% m/m despite still being 0.2% lower than in July 2015
Aug 16, 2016. USD/UAH bounced off the bottom and entered a period of substantial volatility, underpinned by a pickup in import, FX outflow and delayed international financing
Aug 09, 2016. Inflation in Ukraine re-accelerated from 6.9% to 7.9% y/y, ending long term disinflation trend and limiting potential for further policy cuts this year
Aug 02, 2016. Despite robust June BoP figures uncertainty is elevated
Jul 26, 2016. Retail sales and industrial production data: a mixed bag
Jul 19, 2016. Ukrainian Eurobonds traded at par despite delay with IMF review
Jul 11, 2016. Inflation readings favor rate cut
2016_2Q Jul 04, 2016. Solid BoP figures, weight shifting to capital account
Jun 14, 2016. Inflation likely to be in the low double digits going forward
May 31, 2016. The NBU cuts the key rate, more easing to come
May 25, 2016. Ukraine appreciation trend is likely to continue over next months
2016_1Q Mar 15, 2016. Current account back in red
Mar 01, 2016. Industrial production almost flat
Feb 23, 2016. Boost in budget spending pushed up retail sales
Feb 17, 2016. End of recession?
Feb 09, 2016. 2016 current account deficit likely to widen to USD 2.1bn (2.5% of GDP)
Feb 02, 2016. Weaker budget revenues to spur government borrowings later this year
Jan 26, 2016. Ukraine's IP: contraction slows, prospects stay bleak
Jan 19, 2016. This week in focus: UAH deposits show one-off surge in Dec
Jan 12, 2016. CPI inflation seen slowing to 14% by end-2016
2015_4Q Dec 22, 2015. Downward GDP revision is not bad news!
Dec 14, 2015. Macrofinancial stability is the main policy theme going forward
Dec 07, 2015. Current account again in red
Nov 30, 2015. Fiscal inflection point
Nov 23, 2015. Industrial production: drop slows but outlook still weak
Nov 17, 2015. Ukrainian economy shows early signs of a revival, but outlook is still foggy
Nov 10, 2015. Consumer price s: a technical adjustment
Nov 03, 2015. Current account: deficit to return in 4Q
Oct 28, 2015. Ukraine's industrial production: stagnation looms
Oct 19, 2015. External debt restructuring: debt sustainability issue delayed, but not resolved
Oct 12, 2015. End-year CPI forecast retained at 46.6%
Oct 06, 2015. Outlook on Ukraine's current account worsens
2015_3Q Sep 28, 2015. Uptick in the short-term data amid bleak outlook
Sep 14, 2015. UAH deposits head for recovery amid slowing inflation in Aug
Sep 07, 2015. FX controls extended
Aug 31, 2015. No growth drivers
Aug 27, 2015. Research Alert. Ukraine agrees to a sweet restructuring deal
Aug 18, 2015. Recent data provide no clear ground for a quick policy easing
Aug 10, 2015. This week in focus: Disinflation, please!
Aug 04, 2015. UAH looks weak despite healthy current account figures
Jul 27, 2015. Ukraine made important debt payment
Jul 20, 2015. 2Q data confirms our view of a 13.6% GDP drop this year
Jul 13, 2015. Growing banking liquidity calls for lower NBU depo rates
Jul 02, 2015. Ukraine and Greece: default tales
2015_2Q Jun 30, 2015. Government's fiscal position seen strong despite weaker revenues
Jun 15, 2015. Local currency retail deposits resume their slide in May, access to UAH credit may get tighter
Jun 08, 2015. Inflation slows down in May – in line with expectations
Jun 03, 2015. 4M budget performance: inflation drive loses steam
May 19, 2015. Ukraine's tax revenues soar 46.5% y/y against the backdrop of high inflation
May 13, 2015. Ukraine's inflation reaches 60% y/y and will moderate going forward
Apr 27, 2015. Ukraine economy: searching for bottom
Apr 21, 2015. UAH: strengthening is temporary
Apr 14, 2015. Ukraine's FX-denominated domestic debt: assessment of risks
Apr 07, 2015. Ukraine's CPI soars to 45.8% y/y, monetary discipline is key to the disinflation task
2015_1Q Mar 30, 2015. The curing effect of devaluation is still ahead
Mar 23, 2015. Ukraine GDP: no recovery in sight
Mar 16, 2015. Ukraine's reserves to nearly double this month, increase further in 2015
Mar 12, 2015. Research Alert. IMF approves USD 5bn for immediate disbursement
Mar 02, 2015. Better start after horrible week
Feb 24, 2015. Central bank struggles to stop excessive UAH devaluation
Feb 17, 2015. Growth to bottom out, retail sales are yet to hit the wall
Feb 09, 2015. Tighter all the way round
Feb 02, 2015. Retails sales: the worst is still ahead
Jan 26, 2015. Industrial production: L-shape recovery
Jan 19, 2015. Low reserves underline case for likely debt restructuring
Jan 12, 2015. "Temporary" budget adopted
2014_4Q Dec 23, 2014. S&P cuts Ukraine to 'CCC-' on increased default concerns
Dec 09, 2014. CPI climbs to 21.8% on the year
Dec 02, 2014. Current account to benefit from falling oil prices, but UAH still seen under pressure
Nov 25, 2014. Industrial production: rebalancing towards the EU
Nov 18, 2014. NBU hikes rates to support the UAH
Nov 11, 2014. USD/UAH breaks through 15 amid falling reserves
Nov 04, 2014. New FX rate regime
Oct 21, 2014. Industrial production: Donbass effect is fully played out
Oct 13, 2014. NBU reserves to fall sharply in 4Q, all eyes on IMF
Oct 06, 2014. Budget revenues helped out by high inflation, but pressure to mount
2014_3Q Sep 30, 2014. Counting the costs of conflict 2
Sep 22, 2014. Counting the costs of conflict
Sep 09, 2014. Revised Ukraine-IMF memo
Sep 02, 2014. More trade rebalancing needed
Aug 27, 2014. UAH: a hostage of politics
Aug 19, 2014. Fightings in the East take toll on IP figures
Aug 12, 2014. Shrinking NBU reserves to discourage NBU from sizable monetary support of national currency
Aug 04, 2014. 2Q GDP down by 4.7% y/y, our 2014-2015 growth forecast revised
Jul 29, 2014. Current account deficit ticks up in June
Jul 14, 2014. Ukraine issued VAT bonds, more to come
2014_2Q Jun 23, 2014. Some thoughts on restructuring rumors
Jun 17, 2014. The third gas war: Stockholm arbitrage is to bring more transparency in RU-UA gas relations
Jun 10, 2014. Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks
Jun 02, 2014. Spring-cleaning of Ukraine's banking system gets underway
May 23, 2014. New President likely to take office in early June, Parliamentary elections are to follow
May 19, 2014. Retail UAH deposits stabilized, NBU "prints money"
May 13, 2014. Still pain in Ukraine
Apr 29, 2014. Big funding and long holidays
Apr 22, 2014. Industrial production, retail sales to show further weakening
Apr 14, 2014. Deposits keep flowing out of banks, more to come
Apr 08, 2014. Reserves down to USD 15.1bn, weaker UAH starts to tell on CA
2014_1Q Mar 31, 2014. Authorities resort to austerity steps on their bumpy path to IMF deal
Mar 24, 2014. Industrial production: more headwinds to come
Mar 17, 2014. Retail deposits show limited decline so far, but risks remain
Mar 03, 2014. NBU imposes more administrative restrictions on FX market
Feb 24, 2014. Second chance for Ukraine
Feb 10, 2014. NBU reserves lowest since June 2006
Feb 04, 2014. GDP shows zero growth last year – window dressing!
Jan 28, 2014. Ukraine's PM asks for resignation, central bank steps in to defend UAH
Jan 20, 2014. State budget 2014: adopted to be later revised
Jan 14, 2014. 2014 — a risk-free year?
2013_4Q Dec 16, 2013. UAH retail deposits show robust growth in November, expected to decelerate this month
Dec 09, 2013. FX interventions bring reserves to record low, rates to record high
Dec 06, 2013. Research Alert. NBU reserves drop to $18.8 bn in November
Dec 05, 2013. Research Alert. Orderly UAH depreciation: retail is the main risk trigger
Dec 02, 2013. 10M current account data provides no grounds for optimism
Dec 02, 2013. Research Alert. Political tensions in Ukraine: implications for capital markets
Nov 25, 2013. With two days left before Vilnius, Ukraine is mired in uncertainty
Nov 22, 2013. BNP Paribas Global Outlook. Orchestrating growth
Nov 18, 2013. We cut IP forecast to -4.5%, expect retail sales to decelerate further
Nov 11, 2013. Research Alert. Fasten your seatbelt!
Nov 11, 2013. Weak state of government finances makes MinFin seek new ways to cover its funding needs: 21- and 28-day bills are introduced
Nov 04, 2013. Heading into recessionary 2013
Oct 29, 2013. Research Alert. Ukraine's Government sets the amount of Treasury promissory notes issue for 2013
Oct 21, 2013. Forecast of 3Q GDP growth down to -1.5% y/y, annual GDP growth seen at -0.4% y/y
Oct 07, 2013. Current account shows record deficit since December, balance of payments in red
2013_3Q Sep 30, 2013. September 30. Ukraine's CDS are too high, NDFs are too low
Sep 09, 2013. September 09. NBU reserves drop by USD 1bn, expected to fall further
Sep 02, 2013. September 02. Current account deficit widens as gas imports grow Budget revenues lag behind plan, making case for wider deficit
Aug 27, 2013. August 27. Decline in industrial production slows down due to favorable comparison base, one-off factors
Aug 12, 2013. August 12. Ukraine's central bank cuts refinancing rate by 0.5% (to 6.5%): whither implications?
Aug 05, 2013. August 05. Better current account in 1H 2013 due to delayed energy purchases
Jul 29, 2013. One of two laws on Treasury promissory notes signed by President
Jul 08, 2013. Weak revenues growth makes authorities to exercise ingenuity: Parliaments allows VAT to be refunded via Treasury promissory notes
2013_2Q Jun 25, 2013. Research Alert. impact on Ukraine's capital markets
Jun 13, 2013. Global Outlook - Searching for growth, Q3 2013
Jun 10, 2013. Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks
Jun 03, 2013. BoP to remain positive on more Eurobond placements, still eyes on Fed
May 27, 2013. Muddle through feasible only in 2013
May 20, 2013. Industrial production still in red
Apr 29, 2013. Dance until the music plays
Apr 23, 2013. New IMF loan on the back burner, for now
Apr 15, 2013. UAH retail deposits keep rocketing, FX retail account down again
Apr 08, 2013. Foreign reserves almost flat, deflation deepens in March
Apr 02, 2013. Primary debt market in 2Q 2013: more UAH, less USD
2013_1Q Mar 26, 2013. Favorable international markets support BoP
Mar 18, 2013. UAH retail deposits show record growth in February
Mar 11, 2013. BoP: some seasonal improvement, 12M trailing unchanged
Feb 19, 2013. Outstanding growth in UAH retail deposits in January
Feb 11, 2013. Fiscal tightening looming?
Feb 04, 2013. Weak economic growth hints on further softening of the monetary policy
Jan 28, 2013. Local debt market - Who is price taker?
Jan 22, 2013. Ukraine's economic performance was rather weak in 2012, but still better than expected.
Jan 21, 2013. Research Alert. UAH Interest Rates Outlook for January-May 2013: Rates to decline further.
2012_4Q Dec 24, 2012. 2012 at a glance
Dec 18, 2012. New political priorities?
Dec 10, 2012. Difficult Policy Choices
Dec 03, 2012. The IMF provides some suggestion of Ukraine's policy changes
Nov 26, 2012. December is coming – the outlook for the last month of the year
Nov 19, 2012. Currency market: In focus again
Nov 12, 2012. Currency market – New supportive measures instead of traditional interventions
Nov 05, 2012. Budget performance in 2012 – a hint to review a draft 2013 budget plan
Oct 29, 2012. Parliamentary election - close shave victory of the pro-presidential party
Oct 22, 2012. The NBU is ready to help Ukraine's economic growth
Oct 15, 2012. Money market—when will the UAH return to the banking system?
Oct 08, 2012. Finance Ministry finds some smart solutions to cover a decline in budget revenue
Oct 15, 2012. Money market—when will the UAH return to the banking system?
Oct 08, 2012. Finance Ministry finds some smart solutions to cover a decline in budget revenue
Oct 02, 2012. All eyes on the capital account
2012_3Q Sep 24, 2012. Weaker than expected economic performance may create a need for new external borrowings
Sep 18, 2012. An impact of the global stimuli on Ukraine
Sep 11, 2012. The UAH to remain stable in the nearest months
Sep 04, 2012. A drop in tax collection – the first signal of economic slowdown
Aug 28, 2012. Increases in retail deposits guarantee from UAH150thd to UAH200thd
Aug 21, 2012. Boost in the local demand continues putting pressure on the C/A
Aug 14, 2012. UAH retail deposits recorded an outflow, FX deposits added UAH 3.4 bn, net FX purchases by population increased by USD 50 mn m/m in July
Aug 07, 2012. NBU international reserves were at USD 30.8 bn in July, up only USD 0.76 bn m/m despite USD 2 bn in Eurobonds proceeds and zero FX debt repayments
Jul 31, 2012. Money market rates finally recovered from exorbitant levels of above 20% observed for the last two months
Jul 24, 2012. Ukraine tapped international debt markets for the first time this year selling USD 2 bn in 5Y bonds with 9.25% coupon
Jul 16, 2012. MinFin published its 3Q12 borrowing plan aiming to raise UAH 18 bn
Jul 11, 2012. NBU published loans and deposits statistics for June. NBU international reserves shed USD 1.44 bn in June
Jul 02, 2012. BoP recorded a surplus of USD 483 mn in May
2012_2Q Jun 25, 2012. NBU tightens monetary policy by changing reserves requirements
Jun 18, 2012. NBU currency market data for May was better than expected
Jun 11, 2012. Inflation hits multi-year low, down -0.5% y/y, on the back of falling food prices
Jun 05, 2012. VTB loan official repackaging plan finally announced: USD 1 bn to be repaid this week. MinFin raised unprecedented amounts of FX OVDPs to cover FX repayments in June
May 22, 2012. IMF visits Ukraine this week to discuss currency regime, no real action expected till elections. Banking total deposits fell insignificantly in April after hefty inflows in March
May 14, 2012. Markets troubled by Greece potential exit from the euro zone as country's political standoff continues. Fitch downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP forecast to 1.6%, below consensus
May 07, 2012. Provisional 1Q12 GDP up a meager 1.8% y/y, week growth expected after poor industrial output data
Apr 23, 2012. IMF downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP growth forecast. Ukrainian officials make feeble attempts to improve country's image on international debt markets
Apr 17, 2012. Euro zone in turmoil again over Spanish bond yields hitting year high last week
Apr 10, 2012. Ukrainian officials first admit IMF program frozen till elections
2012_1Q Mar 26, 2012. NBU cut base refi rate by 0.25% to 7.50%, introduced some rebalancing concerning mandatory reserves
Mar 12, 2012. Ukraine's president announced social spending ahead of the elections in Oct 2012
Mar 05, 2012. Global markets are enthusiastic following liquidity injection
Feb 27, 2012. Banking system liquidity is on recovery track
Feb 13, 2012. Sovereign risks are decreasing: state debt to GDP ratio is down, imports are slowing
Feb 06, 2012. Total state budget deficit is 3.4% in 2011
Jan 30, 2012. No quick results from IMF talks last week
Jan 24, 2012. Ukraine got no "New Year" gift from Gazprom
Jan 17, 2012. Rada adopts an ambitious privatisation program

Analytical reviews of 2008-2009