Аналітичні огляди
UKRSIBBANK надає клієнтам аналіз гривневих інструментів з фіксованою дохідністю й макроекономічної ситуації в Україні. Аналізу піддаються гривневі суверенні, корпоративні й муніципальні облігації. Аналітика також включає в себе макроекономічні прогнози й оцінку впливу політичних та вагомих корпоративних подій в Україні на економіку та ринки облігацій.
Подані нижче аналітичні матеріали є маркетинговою комунікацією і не призначені для відтворення у відкритому доступі. UKRSIBBANK BNP Paribas Group є одноосібним власником інформації, яка міститься в оглядах (включно з графікою, макетом і текстом) у відповідності з міжнародними і українськими законами про авторські права. Жодна з частин цих матеріалів не може бути відтворена в публічному доступі у будь-якому вигляді, цілком або частково, без попередньої письмової згоди UKRSIBBANK BNP Paribas Group.
Архів аналітичних оглядів попередніх періодів:
Аналітичні огляди 2017 року
| 2017_4Q |
Dec 26, 2017. Ukraine's economy grows in nominal terms, boosting consumption and import Dec 19, 2017. 2018 state budget: it is all about consumption Dec 12, 2017. How likely is the interest rate hike this week in Ukraine? Dec 04, 2017. No negative news for UAH, watch the liquidity in December Nov 28, 2017. Ukraine 4Q growth is likely to surprise on a downside Nov 21, 2017. Banks enjoy sufficient liquidity and strengthened capitalization Nov 14, 2017. Ukraine's CPI decelerated in October Nov 07, 2017. Debt placement offsets trade deficit, but downside risks for UAH increasing Oct 30, 2017. Central bank tightening in Ukraine: a combination of economics and politics? Oct 24, 2017. From the demand side the economy looks solid Oct 10, 2017. Inflation in Ukraine continues to be on the rise in September Oct 03, 2017. BoP turned positive due to lower C/A's deficit in August |
| 2017_3Q |
Sep 25, 2017. Private consumption strengthened even further Sep 05, 2017. BoP turned negative due to weak financial flows Aug 28, 2017. Slowdown in July's key indicators likely to be temporary Aug 15, 2017. Upward risks for inflation prevail Aug 08, 2017. 1H2017 state budget performance surpasses expectations Aug 01, 2017. Dividend payments widened CA deficit Jul 25, 2017. Economy is moving slightly above expectations Jul 17, 2017. Ukraine's current account deficit expanded Jul 10, 2017. Raw food prices pushed CPI upwards Jul 04, 2017. Ukraine's current account deficit expanded |
| 2017_2Q |
Jun 27, 2017. Modest growth is likely to persist Jun 13, 2017. CPI acceleration in May raises temporary concerns Jun 07, 2017. Goods and services trade deficit is likely to persist May 29, 2017. Moderate 1Q2017 GDP growth reflects existing imbalances May 22, 2017. April's readings likely to set up further downward CPI trend May 15, 2017. Interest payments on restructured bonds widened CA deficit Apr 24, 2017. Trade blockade implications to materialize Apr 10, 2017. Elevated inflation print likely to prevent NBU from aggressive cut Apr 04, 2017. CA deficit widens, spelling more dependency on financial flows |
| 2017_1Q |
Mar 28, 2017. Ukraine's growth likely to slow down marginally to 1.7% in 2017 Mar 20, 2017. Inflation spike with further deceleration prospects Mar 14, 2017. Ukraine's current account narrows its deficit Mar 06, 2017. Ukraine's growth unexpected rebound Feb 21, 2017. Ukraine becomes the key stakeholder in its banking sector Feb 13, 2017. Upward risks to CPI likely to weigh on NBU's policy easing Feb 07, 2017. Ukraine's current account deficit to persist in the long term, to be offset by financial inflows Jan 30, 2017. Ukrainian economy outperforms in 2016 Jan 24, 2017. 2017 State budget is ambitious yet feasible Jan 16, 2017. Inflation hits the target, likely to decelerate further |
Аналітичні огляди 2016 року
| 2016_4Q |
Dec 15, 2016. Ukraine Macro outlook Dec 12, 2016. Potential for further monetary easing to reappear in 2017 Dec 05, 2016. BoP likely to be positive in the long run despite trade deficit Nov 28, 2016. Elevated steel prices help the economy to outperform in 2H 2016, with more headwinds next year Nov 22, 2016. Lending revival has begun, although likely to remain slow Nov 14, 2016. Inflation spike decreases probability of NBU hike in December Nov 08, 2016. Doubling in minimal wage unlikely to threaten the economy Oct 31, 2016. Weakness of the current account underscores the economy's structural fragility Oct 25, 2016. With key reading in green, the economy confidently enters 2H Oct 18, 2016. Growing deposits signal of recovering financial system Oct 11, 2016. Rising inflation increases probability of no key rate cut Oct 03, 2016. Current account deficit to keep widening |
| 2016_3Q |
Sep 19, 2016. UAH is on track to gradually depreciate in spite of the IMF deal Sep 13, 2016. CPI is likely to land at NBU target Sep 06, 2016. Financial inflows are vital for UAH stability as current account deteriorates Aug 30, 2016. Wage growth deceleration is likely to weight down domestic consumption in 2H 2016 Aug 23, 2016. July 2016 readings of retail sales showed a 4.5% y/y growth whereas industrial production grew by 7% m/m despite still being 0.2% lower than in July 2015 Aug 16, 2016. USD/UAH bounced off the bottom and entered a period of substantial volatility, underpinned by a pickup in import, FX outflow and delayed international financing Aug 09, 2016. Inflation in Ukraine re-accelerated from 6.9% to 7.9% y/y, ending long term disinflation trend and limiting potential for further policy cuts this year Aug 02, 2016. Despite robust June BoP figures uncertainty is elevated Jul 26, 2016. Retail sales and industrial production data: a mixed bag Jul 19, 2016. Ukrainian Eurobonds traded at par despite delay with IMF review Jul 11, 2016. Inflation readings favor rate cut |
| 2016_2Q |
Jul 04, 2016. Solid BoP figures, weight shifting to capital account Jun 14, 2016. Inflation likely to be in the low double digits going forward May 31, 2016. The NBU cuts the key rate, more easing to come May 25, 2016. Ukraine appreciation trend is likely to continue over next months |
| 2016_1Q |
Mar 15, 2016. Current account back in red Mar 01, 2016. Industrial production almost flat Feb 23, 2016. Boost in budget spending pushed up retail sales Feb 17, 2016. End of recession? Feb 09, 2016. 2016 current account deficit likely to widen to USD 2.1bn (2.5% of GDP) Feb 02, 2016. Weaker budget revenues to spur government borrowings later this year Jan 26, 2016. Ukraine's IP: contraction slows, prospects stay bleak Jan 19, 2016. This week in focus: UAH deposits show one-off surge in Dec Jan 12, 2016. CPI inflation seen slowing to 14% by end-2016 |
Аналітичні огляди 2015 року
| 2015_4Q |
Dec 22, 2015. Downward GDP revision is not bad news! Dec 14, 2015. Macrofinancial stability is the main policy theme going forward Dec 07, 2015. Current account again in red Nov 30, 2015. Fiscal inflection point Nov 23, 2015. Industrial production: drop slows but outlook still weak Nov 17, 2015. Ukrainian economy shows early signs of a revival, but outlook is still foggy Nov 10, 2015. Consumer price s: a technical adjustment Nov 03, 2015. Current account: deficit to return in 4Q Oct 28, 2015. Ukraine's industrial production: stagnation looms Oct 19, 2015. External debt restructuring: debt sustainability issue delayed, but not resolved Oct 12, 2015. End-year CPI forecast retained at 46.6% Oct 06, 2015. Outlook on Ukraine's current account worsens |
| 2015_3Q |
Sep 28, 2015. Uptick in the short-term data amid bleak outlook Sep 14, 2015. UAH deposits head for recovery amid slowing inflation in Aug Sep 07, 2015. FX controls extended Aug 31, 2015. No growth drivers Aug 27, 2015. Research Alert. Ukraine agrees to a sweet restructuring deal Aug 18, 2015. Recent data provide no clear ground for a quick policy easing Aug 10, 2015. This week in focus: Disinflation, please! Aug 04, 2015. UAH looks weak despite healthy current account figures Jul 27, 2015. Ukraine made important debt payment Jul 20, 2015. 2Q data confirms our view of a 13.6% GDP drop this year Jul 13, 2015. Growing banking liquidity calls for lower NBU depo rates Jul 02, 2015. Ukraine and Greece: default tales |
| 2015_2Q |
Jun 30, 2015. Government's fiscal position seen strong despite weaker revenues Jun 15, 2015. Local currency retail deposits resume their slide in May, access to UAH credit may get tighter Jun 08, 2015. Inflation slows down in May – in line with expectations Jun 03, 2015. 4M budget performance: inflation drive loses steam May 19, 2015. Ukraine's tax revenues soar 46.5% y/y against the backdrop of high inflation May 13, 2015. Ukraine's inflation reaches 60% y/y and will moderate going forward Apr 27, 2015. Ukraine economy: searching for bottom Apr 21, 2015. UAH: strengthening is temporary Apr 14, 2015. Ukraine's FX-denominated domestic debt: assessment of risks Apr 07, 2015. Ukraine's CPI soars to 45.8% y/y, monetary discipline is key to the disinflation task |
| 2015_1Q |
Mar 30, 2015. The curing effect of devaluation is still ahead Mar 23, 2015. Ukraine GDP: no recovery in sight Mar 16, 2015. Ukraine's reserves to nearly double this month, increase further in 2015 Mar 12, 2015. Research Alert. IMF approves USD 5bn for immediate disbursement Mar 02, 2015. Better start after horrible week Feb 24, 2015. Central bank struggles to stop excessive UAH devaluation Feb 17, 2015. Growth to bottom out, retail sales are yet to hit the wall Feb 09, 2015. Tighter all the way round Feb 02, 2015. Retails sales: the worst is still ahead Jan 26, 2015. Industrial production: L-shape recovery Jan 19, 2015. Low reserves underline case for likely debt restructuring Jan 12, 2015. "Temporary" budget adopted |
Аналітичні огляди 2014 року
| 2014_4Q |
Dec 23, 2014. S&P cuts Ukraine to 'CCC-' on increased default concerns Dec 09, 2014. CPI climbs to 21.8% on the year Dec 02, 2014. Current account to benefit from falling oil prices, but UAH still seen under pressure Nov 25, 2014. Industrial production: rebalancing towards the EU Nov 18, 2014. NBU hikes rates to support the UAH Nov 11, 2014. USD/UAH breaks through 15 amid falling reserves Nov 04, 2014. New FX rate regime Oct 21, 2014. Industrial production: Donbass effect is fully played out Oct 13, 2014. NBU reserves to fall sharply in 4Q, all eyes on IMF Oct 06, 2014. Budget revenues helped out by high inflation, but pressure to mount |
| 2014_3Q |
Sep 30, 2014. Counting the costs of conflict 2 Sep 22, 2014. Counting the costs of conflict Sep 09, 2014. Revised Ukraine-IMF memo Sep 02, 2014. More trade rebalancing needed Aug 27, 2014. UAH: a hostage of politics Aug 19, 2014. Fightings in the East take toll on IP figures Aug 12, 2014. Shrinking NBU reserves to discourage NBU from sizable monetary support of national currency Aug 04, 2014. 2Q GDP down by 4.7% y/y, our 2014-2015 growth forecast revised Jul 29, 2014. Current account deficit ticks up in June Jul 14, 2014. Ukraine issued VAT bonds, more to come |
| 2014_2Q |
Jun 23, 2014. Some thoughts on restructuring rumors Jun 17, 2014. The third gas war: Stockholm arbitrage is to bring more transparency in RU-UA gas relations Jun 10, 2014. Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks Jun 02, 2014. Spring-cleaning of Ukraine's banking system gets underway May 23, 2014. New President likely to take office in early June, Parliamentary elections are to follow May 19, 2014. Retail UAH deposits stabilized, NBU "prints money" May 13, 2014. Still pain in Ukraine Apr 29, 2014. Big funding and long holidays Apr 22, 2014. Industrial production, retail sales to show further weakening Apr 14, 2014. Deposits keep flowing out of banks, more to come Apr 08, 2014. Reserves down to USD 15.1bn, weaker UAH starts to tell on CA |
| 2014_1Q |
Mar 31, 2014. Authorities resort to austerity steps on their bumpy path to IMF deal Mar 24, 2014. Industrial production: more headwinds to come Mar 17, 2014. Retail deposits show limited decline so far, but risks remain Mar 03, 2014. NBU imposes more administrative restrictions on FX market Feb 24, 2014. Second chance for Ukraine Feb 10, 2014. NBU reserves lowest since June 2006 Feb 04, 2014. GDP shows zero growth last year – window dressing! Jan 28, 2014. Ukraine's PM asks for resignation, central bank steps in to defend UAH Jan 20, 2014. State budget 2014: adopted to be later revised Jan 14, 2014. 2014 — a risk-free year? |
Аналітичні огляди 2013 року
| 2013_4Q |
Dec 16, 2013. UAH retail deposits show robust growth in November, expected to decelerate this month Dec 09, 2013. FX interventions bring reserves to record low, rates to record high Dec 06, 2013. Research Alert. NBU reserves drop to $18.8 bn in November Dec 05, 2013. Research Alert. Orderly UAH depreciation: retail is the main risk trigger Dec 02, 2013. 10M current account data provides no grounds for optimism Dec 02, 2013. Research Alert. Political tensions in Ukraine: implications for capital markets Nov 25, 2013. With two days left before Vilnius, Ukraine is mired in uncertainty Nov 22, 2013. BNP Paribas Global Outlook. Orchestrating growth Nov 18, 2013. We cut IP forecast to -4.5%, expect retail sales to decelerate further Nov 11, 2013. Research Alert. Fasten your seatbelt! Nov 11, 2013. Weak state of government finances makes MinFin seek new ways to cover its funding needs: 21- and 28-day bills are introduced Nov 04, 2013. Heading into recessionary 2013 Oct 29, 2013. Research Alert. Ukraine's Government sets the amount of Treasury promissory notes issue for 2013 Oct 21, 2013. Forecast of 3Q GDP growth down to -1.5% y/y, annual GDP growth seen at -0.4% y/y Oct 07, 2013. Current account shows record deficit since December, balance of payments in red |
| 2013_3Q |
Sep 30, 2013. September 30. Ukraine's CDS are too high, NDFs are too low Sep 09, 2013. September 09. NBU reserves drop by USD 1bn, expected to fall further Sep 02, 2013. September 02. Current account deficit widens as gas imports grow Budget revenues lag behind plan, making case for wider deficit Aug 27, 2013. August 27. Decline in industrial production slows down due to favorable comparison base, one-off factors Aug 12, 2013. August 12. Ukraine's central bank cuts refinancing rate by 0.5% (to 6.5%): whither implications? Aug 05, 2013. August 05. Better current account in 1H 2013 due to delayed energy purchases Jul 29, 2013. One of two laws on Treasury promissory notes signed by President Jul 08, 2013. Weak revenues growth makes authorities to exercise ingenuity: Parliaments allows VAT to be refunded via Treasury promissory notes |
| 2013_2Q |
Jun 25, 2013. Research Alert. impact on Ukraine's capital markets Jun 13, 2013. Global Outlook - Searching for growth, Q3 2013 Jun 10, 2013. Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks Jun 03, 2013. BoP to remain positive on more Eurobond placements, still eyes on Fed May 27, 2013. Muddle through feasible only in 2013 May 20, 2013. Industrial production still in red Apr 29, 2013. Dance until the music plays Apr 23, 2013. New IMF loan on the back burner, for now Apr 15, 2013. UAH retail deposits keep rocketing, FX retail account down again Apr 08, 2013. Foreign reserves almost flat, deflation deepens in March Apr 02, 2013. Primary debt market in 2Q 2013: more UAH, less USD |
| 2013_1Q |
Mar 26, 2013. Favorable international markets support BoP Mar 18, 2013. UAH retail deposits show record growth in February Mar 11, 2013. BoP: some seasonal improvement, 12M trailing unchanged Feb 19, 2013. Outstanding growth in UAH retail deposits in January Feb 11, 2013. Fiscal tightening looming? Feb 04, 2013. Weak economic growth hints on further softening of the monetary policy Jan 28, 2013. Local debt market - Who is price taker? Jan 22, 2013. Ukraine's economic performance was rather weak in 2012, but still better than expected. Jan 21, 2013. Research Alert. UAH Interest Rates Outlook for January-May 2013: Rates to decline further. |
Аналітичні огляди 2012 року
| 2012_4Q |
Dec 24, 2012. 2012 at a glance Dec 18, 2012. New political priorities? Dec 10, 2012. Difficult Policy Choices Dec 03, 2012. The IMF provides some suggestion of Ukraine's policy changes Nov 26, 2012. December is coming – the outlook for the last month of the year Nov 19, 2012. Currency market: In focus again Nov 12, 2012. Currency market – New supportive measures instead of traditional interventions Nov 05, 2012. Budget performance in 2012 – a hint to review a draft 2013 budget plan Oct 29, 2012. Parliamentary election - close shave victory of the pro-presidential party Oct 22, 2012. The NBU is ready to help Ukraine's economic growth Oct 15, 2012. Money market—when will the UAH return to the banking system? Oct 08, 2012. Finance Ministry finds some smart solutions to cover a decline in budget revenue Oct 15, 2012. Money market—when will the UAH return to the banking system? Oct 08, 2012. Finance Ministry finds some smart solutions to cover a decline in budget revenue Oct 02, 2012. All eyes on the capital account |
| 2012_3Q |
Sep 24, 2012. Weaker than expected economic performance may create a need for new external borrowings Sep 18, 2012. An impact of the global stimuli on Ukraine Sep 11, 2012. The UAH to remain stable in the nearest months Sep 04, 2012. A drop in tax collection – the first signal of economic slowdown Aug 28, 2012. Increases in retail deposits guarantee from UAH150thd to UAH200thd Aug 21, 2012. Boost in the local demand continues putting pressure on the C/A Aug 14, 2012. UAH retail deposits recorded an outflow, FX deposits added UAH 3.4 bn, net FX purchases by population increased by USD 50 mn m/m in July Aug 07, 2012. NBU international reserves were at USD 30.8 bn in July, up only USD 0.76 bn m/m despite USD 2 bn in Eurobonds proceeds and zero FX debt repayments Jul 31, 2012. Money market rates finally recovered from exorbitant levels of above 20% observed for the last two months Jul 24, 2012. Ukraine tapped international debt markets for the first time this year selling USD 2 bn in 5Y bonds with 9.25% coupon Jul 16, 2012. MinFin published its 3Q12 borrowing plan aiming to raise UAH 18 bn Jul 11, 2012. NBU published loans and deposits statistics for June. NBU international reserves shed USD 1.44 bn in June Jul 02, 2012. BoP recorded a surplus of USD 483 mn in May |
| 2012_2Q |
Jun 25, 2012. NBU tightens monetary policy by changing reserves requirements Jun 18, 2012. NBU currency market data for May was better than expected Jun 11, 2012. Inflation hits multi-year low, down -0.5% y/y, on the back of falling food prices Jun 05, 2012. VTB loan official repackaging plan finally announced: USD 1 bn to be repaid this week. MinFin raised unprecedented amounts of FX OVDPs to cover FX repayments in June May 22, 2012. IMF visits Ukraine this week to discuss currency regime, no real action expected till elections. Banking total deposits fell insignificantly in April after hefty inflows in March May 14, 2012. Markets troubled by Greece potential exit from the euro zone as country's political standoff continues. Fitch downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP forecast to 1.6%, below consensus May 07, 2012. Provisional 1Q12 GDP up a meager 1.8% y/y, week growth expected after poor industrial output data Apr 23, 2012. IMF downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP growth forecast. Ukrainian officials make feeble attempts to improve country's image on international debt markets Apr 17, 2012. Euro zone in turmoil again over Spanish bond yields hitting year high last week Apr 10, 2012. Ukrainian officials first admit IMF program frozen till elections |
| 2012_1Q |
Mar 26, 2012. NBU cut base refi rate by 0.25% to 7.50%, introduced some rebalancing concerning mandatory reserves Mar 12, 2012. Ukraine's president announced social spending ahead of the elections in Oct 2012 Mar 05, 2012. Global markets are enthusiastic following liquidity injection Feb 27, 2012. Banking system liquidity is on recovery track Feb 13, 2012. Sovereign risks are decreasing: state debt to GDP ratio is down, imports are slowing Feb 06, 2012. Total state budget deficit is 3.4% in 2011 Jan 30, 2012. No quick results from IMF talks last week Jan 24, 2012. Ukraine got no "New Year" gift from Gazprom Jan 17, 2012. Rada adopts an ambitious privatisation program |
Аналітичні огляди 2009 року
November 27, 2009 
Macro Outlook. Growth Under Construction
Аналітичні огляди 2008 року
December 23, 2008 Macro Outlook. Looking to Get Out