Аналітичні огляди

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Mar 05, 2018.  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine BoP: upbeat C/A, financial flows at a weak footing

Feb 27, 2018.  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine’s central bank likely to stop tightening for now

Feb 20, 2018.  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. UAH appreciation is done for now

Feb 13, 2018.  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine inflation continues to be high

Feb 06, 2018.  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine’s BoP outperforming expectations now, facing strong headwind later

Jan 30, 2018.  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. NBU hikes rate 3-d time in a row, sticking to a tight stance

Jan 23, 2018.  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. UAH to appreciate on a 6-month horizon

Jan 16, 2018.  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine’s inflation shatters old stereotypes

Jan 09, 2018.  Ukrainian Capital Markets Weekly. Ukraine sees some stabilization in current account, FX reserves


Архів аналітичних оглядів попередніх періодів:

Аналітичні огляди 2017 року

2017_4Q Dec 26, 2017. Ukraine's economy grows in nominal terms, boosting consumption and import
Dec 19, 2017. 2018 state budget: it is all about consumption
Dec 12, 2017. How likely is the interest rate hike this week in Ukraine?
Dec 04, 2017. No negative news for UAH, watch the liquidity in December
Nov 28, 2017. Ukraine 4Q growth is likely to surprise on a downside
Nov 21, 2017. Banks enjoy sufficient liquidity and strengthened capitalization
Nov 14, 2017. Ukraine's CPI decelerated in October
Nov 07, 2017. Debt placement offsets trade deficit, but downside risks for UAH increasing
Oct 30, 2017. Central bank tightening in Ukraine: a combination of economics and politics?
Oct 24, 2017. From the demand side the economy looks solid
Oct 10, 2017. Inflation in Ukraine continues to be on the rise in September
Oct 03, 2017. BoP turned positive due to lower C/A's deficit in August
2017_3Q Sep 25, 2017. Private consumption strengthened even further
Sep 05, 2017. BoP turned negative due to weak financial flows
Aug 28, 2017. Slowdown in July's key indicators likely to be temporary
Aug 15, 2017. Upward risks for inflation prevail
Aug 08, 2017. 1H2017 state budget performance surpasses expectations
Aug 01, 2017. Dividend payments widened CA deficit
Jul 25, 2017. Economy is moving slightly above expectations
Jul 17, 2017. Ukraine's current account deficit expanded
Jul 10, 2017. Raw food prices pushed CPI upwards
Jul 04, 2017. Ukraine's current account deficit expanded
2017_2Q Jun 27, 2017. Modest growth is likely to persist
Jun 13, 2017. CPI acceleration in May raises temporary concerns
Jun 07, 2017. Goods and services trade deficit is likely to persist
May 29, 2017. Moderate 1Q2017 GDP growth reflects existing imbalances
May 22, 2017. April's readings likely to set up further downward CPI trend
May 15, 2017. Interest payments on restructured bonds widened CA deficit
Apr 24, 2017. Trade blockade implications to materialize
Apr 10, 2017. Elevated inflation print likely to prevent NBU from aggressive cut
Apr 04, 2017. CA deficit widens, spelling more dependency on financial flows
2017_1Q Mar 28, 2017. Ukraine's growth likely to slow down marginally to 1.7% in 2017
Mar 20, 2017. Inflation spike with further deceleration prospects
Mar 14, 2017. Ukraine's current account narrows its deficit
Mar 06, 2017. Ukraine's growth unexpected rebound
Feb 21, 2017. Ukraine becomes the key stakeholder in its banking sector
Feb 13, 2017. Upward risks to CPI likely to weigh on NBU's policy easing
Feb 07, 2017. Ukraine's current account deficit to persist in the long term, to be offset by financial inflows
Jan 30, 2017. Ukrainian economy outperforms in 2016
Jan 24, 2017. 2017 State budget is ambitious yet feasible
Jan 16, 2017. Inflation hits the target, likely to decelerate further

Аналітичні огляди 2016 року

2016_4Q Dec 15, 2016. Ukraine Macro outlook
Dec 12, 2016. Potential for further monetary easing to reappear in 2017
Dec 05, 2016. BoP likely to be positive in the long run despite trade deficit
Nov 28, 2016. Elevated steel prices help the economy to outperform in 2H 2016, with more headwinds next year
Nov 22, 2016. Lending revival has begun, although likely to remain slow
Nov 14, 2016. Inflation spike decreases probability of NBU hike in December
Nov 08, 2016. Doubling in minimal wage unlikely to threaten the economy
Oct 31, 2016. Weakness of the current account underscores the economy's structural fragility
Oct 25, 2016. With key reading in green, the economy confidently enters 2H
Oct 18, 2016. Growing deposits signal of recovering financial system
Oct 11, 2016. Rising inflation increases probability of no key rate cut
Oct 03, 2016. Current account deficit to keep widening
2016_3Q Sep 19, 2016. UAH is on track to gradually depreciate in spite of the IMF deal
Sep 13, 2016. CPI is likely to land at NBU target
Sep 06, 2016. Financial inflows are vital for UAH stability as current account deteriorates
Aug 30, 2016. Wage growth deceleration is likely to weight down domestic consumption in 2H 2016
Aug 23, 2016. July 2016 readings of retail sales showed a 4.5% y/y growth whereas industrial production grew by 7% m/m despite still being 0.2% lower than in July 2015
Aug 16, 2016. USD/UAH bounced off the bottom and entered a period of substantial volatility, underpinned by a pickup in import, FX outflow and delayed international financing
Aug 09, 2016. Inflation in Ukraine re-accelerated from 6.9% to 7.9% y/y, ending long term disinflation trend and limiting potential for further policy cuts this year
Aug 02, 2016. Despite robust June BoP figures uncertainty is elevated
Jul 26, 2016. Retail sales and industrial production data: a mixed bag
Jul 19, 2016. Ukrainian Eurobonds traded at par despite delay with IMF review
Jul 11, 2016. Inflation readings favor rate cut
2016_2Q Jul 04, 2016. Solid BoP figures, weight shifting to capital account
Jun 14, 2016. Inflation likely to be in the low double digits going forward
May 31, 2016. The NBU cuts the key rate, more easing to come
May 25, 2016. Ukraine appreciation trend is likely to continue over next months
2016_1Q Mar 15, 2016. Current account back in red
Mar 01, 2016. Industrial production almost flat
Feb 23, 2016. Boost in budget spending pushed up retail sales
Feb 17, 2016. End of recession?
Feb 09, 2016. 2016 current account deficit likely to widen to USD 2.1bn (2.5% of GDP)
Feb 02, 2016. Weaker budget revenues to spur government borrowings later this year
Jan 26, 2016. Ukraine's IP: contraction slows, prospects stay bleak
Jan 19, 2016. This week in focus: UAH deposits show one-off surge in Dec
Jan 12, 2016. CPI inflation seen slowing to 14% by end-2016

Аналітичні огляди 2015 року

2015_4Q Dec 22, 2015. Downward GDP revision is not bad news!
Dec 14, 2015. Macrofinancial stability is the main policy theme going forward
Dec 07, 2015. Current account again in red
Nov 30, 2015. Fiscal inflection point
Nov 23, 2015. Industrial production: drop slows but outlook still weak
Nov 17, 2015. Ukrainian economy shows early signs of a revival, but outlook is still foggy
Nov 10, 2015. Consumer price s: a technical adjustment
Nov 03, 2015. Current account: deficit to return in 4Q
Oct 28, 2015. Ukraine's industrial production: stagnation looms
Oct 19, 2015. External debt restructuring: debt sustainability issue delayed, but not resolved
Oct 12, 2015. End-year CPI forecast retained at 46.6%
Oct 06, 2015. Outlook on Ukraine's current account worsens
2015_3Q Sep 28, 2015. Uptick in the short-term data amid bleak outlook
Sep 14, 2015. UAH deposits head for recovery amid slowing inflation in Aug
Sep 07, 2015. FX controls extended
Aug 31, 2015. No growth drivers
Aug 27, 2015. Research Alert. Ukraine agrees to a sweet restructuring deal
Aug 18, 2015. Recent data provide no clear ground for a quick policy easing
Aug 10, 2015. This week in focus: Disinflation, please!
Aug 04, 2015. UAH looks weak despite healthy current account figures
Jul 27, 2015. Ukraine made important debt payment
Jul 20, 2015. 2Q data confirms our view of a 13.6% GDP drop this year
Jul 13, 2015. Growing banking liquidity calls for lower NBU depo rates
Jul 02, 2015. Ukraine and Greece: default tales
2015_2Q Jun 30, 2015. Government's fiscal position seen strong despite weaker revenues
Jun 15, 2015. Local currency retail deposits resume their slide in May, access to UAH credit may get tighter
Jun 08, 2015. Inflation slows down in May – in line with expectations
Jun 03, 2015. 4M budget performance: inflation drive loses steam
May 19, 2015. Ukraine's tax revenues soar 46.5% y/y against the backdrop of high inflation
May 13, 2015. Ukraine's inflation reaches 60% y/y and will moderate going forward
Apr 27, 2015. Ukraine economy: searching for bottom
Apr 21, 2015. UAH: strengthening is temporary
Apr 14, 2015. Ukraine's FX-denominated domestic debt: assessment of risks
Apr 07, 2015. Ukraine's CPI soars to 45.8% y/y, monetary discipline is key to the disinflation task
2015_1Q Mar 30, 2015. The curing effect of devaluation is still ahead
Mar 23, 2015. Ukraine GDP: no recovery in sight
Mar 16, 2015. Ukraine's reserves to nearly double this month, increase further in 2015
Mar 12, 2015. Research Alert. IMF approves USD 5bn for immediate disbursement
Mar 02, 2015. Better start after horrible week
Feb 24, 2015. Central bank struggles to stop excessive UAH devaluation
Feb 17, 2015. Growth to bottom out, retail sales are yet to hit the wall
Feb 09, 2015. Tighter all the way round
Feb 02, 2015. Retails sales: the worst is still ahead
Jan 26, 2015. Industrial production: L-shape recovery
Jan 19, 2015. Low reserves underline case for likely debt restructuring
Jan 12, 2015. "Temporary" budget adopted

Аналітичні огляди 2014 року

2014_4Q Dec 23, 2014. S&P cuts Ukraine to 'CCC-' on increased default concerns
Dec 09, 2014. CPI climbs to 21.8% on the year
Dec 02, 2014. Current account to benefit from falling oil prices, but UAH still seen under pressure
Nov 25, 2014. Industrial production: rebalancing towards the EU
Nov 18, 2014. NBU hikes rates to support the UAH
Nov 11, 2014. USD/UAH breaks through 15 amid falling reserves
Nov 04, 2014. New FX rate regime
Oct 21, 2014. Industrial production: Donbass effect is fully played out
Oct 13, 2014. NBU reserves to fall sharply in 4Q, all eyes on IMF
Oct 06, 2014. Budget revenues helped out by high inflation, but pressure to mount
2014_3Q Sep 30, 2014. Counting the costs of conflict 2
Sep 22, 2014. Counting the costs of conflict
Sep 09, 2014. Revised Ukraine-IMF memo
Sep 02, 2014. More trade rebalancing needed
Aug 27, 2014. UAH: a hostage of politics
Aug 19, 2014. Fightings in the East take toll on IP figures
Aug 12, 2014. Shrinking NBU reserves to discourage NBU from sizable monetary support of national currency
Aug 04, 2014. 2Q GDP down by 4.7% y/y, our 2014-2015 growth forecast revised
Jul 29, 2014. Current account deficit ticks up in June
Jul 14, 2014. Ukraine issued VAT bonds, more to come
2014_2Q Jun 23, 2014. Some thoughts on restructuring rumors
Jun 17, 2014. The third gas war: Stockholm arbitrage is to bring more transparency in RU-UA gas relations
Jun 10, 2014. Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks
Jun 02, 2014. Spring-cleaning of Ukraine's banking system gets underway
May 23, 2014. New President likely to take office in early June, Parliamentary elections are to follow
May 19, 2014. Retail UAH deposits stabilized, NBU "prints money"
May 13, 2014. Still pain in Ukraine
Apr 29, 2014. Big funding and long holidays
Apr 22, 2014. Industrial production, retail sales to show further weakening
Apr 14, 2014. Deposits keep flowing out of banks, more to come
Apr 08, 2014. Reserves down to USD 15.1bn, weaker UAH starts to tell on CA
2014_1Q Mar 31, 2014. Authorities resort to austerity steps on their bumpy path to IMF deal
Mar 24, 2014. Industrial production: more headwinds to come
Mar 17, 2014. Retail deposits show limited decline so far, but risks remain
Mar 03, 2014. NBU imposes more administrative restrictions on FX market
Feb 24, 2014. Second chance for Ukraine
Feb 10, 2014. NBU reserves lowest since June 2006
Feb 04, 2014. GDP shows zero growth last year – window dressing!
Jan 28, 2014. Ukraine's PM asks for resignation, central bank steps in to defend UAH
Jan 20, 2014. State budget 2014: adopted to be later revised
Jan 14, 2014. 2014 — a risk-free year?

Аналітичні огляди 2013 року

2013_4Q Dec 16, 2013. UAH retail deposits show robust growth in November, expected to decelerate this month
Dec 09, 2013. FX interventions bring reserves to record low, rates to record high
Dec 06, 2013. Research Alert. NBU reserves drop to $18.8 bn in November
Dec 05, 2013. Research Alert. Orderly UAH depreciation: retail is the main risk trigger
Dec 02, 2013. 10M current account data provides no grounds for optimism
Dec 02, 2013. Research Alert. Political tensions in Ukraine: implications for capital markets
Nov 25, 2013. With two days left before Vilnius, Ukraine is mired in uncertainty
Nov 22, 2013. BNP Paribas Global Outlook. Orchestrating growth
Nov 18, 2013. We cut IP forecast to -4.5%, expect retail sales to decelerate further
Nov 11, 2013. Research Alert. Fasten your seatbelt!
Nov 11, 2013. Weak state of government finances makes MinFin seek new ways to cover its funding needs: 21- and 28-day bills are introduced
Nov 04, 2013. Heading into recessionary 2013
Oct 29, 2013. Research Alert. Ukraine's Government sets the amount of Treasury promissory notes issue for 2013
Oct 21, 2013. Forecast of 3Q GDP growth down to -1.5% y/y, annual GDP growth seen at -0.4% y/y
Oct 07, 2013. Current account shows record deficit since December, balance of payments in red
2013_3Q Sep 30, 2013. September 30. Ukraine's CDS are too high, NDFs are too low
Sep 09, 2013. September 09. NBU reserves drop by USD 1bn, expected to fall further
Sep 02, 2013. September 02. Current account deficit widens as gas imports grow Budget revenues lag behind plan, making case for wider deficit
Aug 27, 2013. August 27. Decline in industrial production slows down due to favorable comparison base, one-off factors
Aug 12, 2013. August 12. Ukraine's central bank cuts refinancing rate by 0.5% (to 6.5%): whither implications?
Aug 05, 2013. August 05. Better current account in 1H 2013 due to delayed energy purchases
Jul 29, 2013. One of two laws on Treasury promissory notes signed by President
Jul 08, 2013. Weak revenues growth makes authorities to exercise ingenuity: Parliaments allows VAT to be refunded via Treasury promissory notes
2013_2Q Jun 25, 2013. Research Alert. impact on Ukraine's capital markets
Jun 13, 2013. Global Outlook - Searching for growth, Q3 2013
Jun 10, 2013. Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks
Jun 03, 2013. BoP to remain positive on more Eurobond placements, still eyes on Fed
May 27, 2013. Muddle through feasible only in 2013
May 20, 2013. Industrial production still in red
Apr 29, 2013. Dance until the music plays
Apr 23, 2013. New IMF loan on the back burner, for now
Apr 15, 2013. UAH retail deposits keep rocketing, FX retail account down again
Apr 08, 2013. Foreign reserves almost flat, deflation deepens in March
Apr 02, 2013. Primary debt market in 2Q 2013: more UAH, less USD
2013_1Q Mar 26, 2013. Favorable international markets support BoP
Mar 18, 2013. UAH retail deposits show record growth in February
Mar 11, 2013. BoP: some seasonal improvement, 12M trailing unchanged
Feb 19, 2013. Outstanding growth in UAH retail deposits in January
Feb 11, 2013. Fiscal tightening looming?
Feb 04, 2013. Weak economic growth hints on further softening of the monetary policy
Jan 28, 2013. Local debt market - Who is price taker?
Jan 22, 2013. Ukraine's economic performance was rather weak in 2012, but still better than expected.
Jan 21, 2013. Research Alert. UAH Interest Rates Outlook for January-May 2013: Rates to decline further.

Аналітичні огляди 2012 року

2012_4Q Dec 24, 2012. 2012 at a glance
Dec 18, 2012. New political priorities?
Dec 10, 2012. Difficult Policy Choices
Dec 03, 2012. The IMF provides some suggestion of Ukraine's policy changes
Nov 26, 2012. December is coming – the outlook for the last month of the year
Nov 19, 2012. Currency market: In focus again
Nov 12, 2012. Currency market – New supportive measures instead of traditional interventions
Nov 05, 2012. Budget performance in 2012 – a hint to review a draft 2013 budget plan
Oct 29, 2012. Parliamentary election - close shave victory of the pro-presidential party
Oct 22, 2012. The NBU is ready to help Ukraine's economic growth
Oct 15, 2012. Money market—when will the UAH return to the banking system?
Oct 08, 2012. Finance Ministry finds some smart solutions to cover a decline in budget revenue
Oct 15, 2012. Money market—when will the UAH return to the banking system?
Oct 08, 2012. Finance Ministry finds some smart solutions to cover a decline in budget revenue
Oct 02, 2012. All eyes on the capital account
2012_3Q Sep 24, 2012. Weaker than expected economic performance may create a need for new external borrowings
Sep 18, 2012. An impact of the global stimuli on Ukraine
Sep 11, 2012. The UAH to remain stable in the nearest months
Sep 04, 2012. A drop in tax collection – the first signal of economic slowdown
Aug 28, 2012. Increases in retail deposits guarantee from UAH150thd to UAH200thd
Aug 21, 2012. Boost in the local demand continues putting pressure on the C/A
Aug 14, 2012. UAH retail deposits recorded an outflow, FX deposits added UAH 3.4 bn, net FX purchases by population increased by USD 50 mn m/m in July
Aug 07, 2012. NBU international reserves were at USD 30.8 bn in July, up only USD 0.76 bn m/m despite USD 2 bn in Eurobonds proceeds and zero FX debt repayments
Jul 31, 2012. Money market rates finally recovered from exorbitant levels of above 20% observed for the last two months
Jul 24, 2012. Ukraine tapped international debt markets for the first time this year selling USD 2 bn in 5Y bonds with 9.25% coupon
Jul 16, 2012. MinFin published its 3Q12 borrowing plan aiming to raise UAH 18 bn
Jul 11, 2012. NBU published loans and deposits statistics for June. NBU international reserves shed USD 1.44 bn in June
Jul 02, 2012. BoP recorded a surplus of USD 483 mn in May
2012_2Q Jun 25, 2012. NBU tightens monetary policy by changing reserves requirements
Jun 18, 2012. NBU currency market data for May was better than expected
Jun 11, 2012. Inflation hits multi-year low, down -0.5% y/y, on the back of falling food prices
Jun 05, 2012. VTB loan official repackaging plan finally announced: USD 1 bn to be repaid this week. MinFin raised unprecedented amounts of FX OVDPs to cover FX repayments in June
May 22, 2012. IMF visits Ukraine this week to discuss currency regime, no real action expected till elections. Banking total deposits fell insignificantly in April after hefty inflows in March
May 14, 2012. Markets troubled by Greece potential exit from the euro zone as country's political standoff continues. Fitch downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP forecast to 1.6%, below consensus
May 07, 2012. Provisional 1Q12 GDP up a meager 1.8% y/y, week growth expected after poor industrial output data
Apr 23, 2012. IMF downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP growth forecast. Ukrainian officials make feeble attempts to improve country's image on international debt markets
Apr 17, 2012. Euro zone in turmoil again over Spanish bond yields hitting year high last week
Apr 10, 2012. Ukrainian officials first admit IMF program frozen till elections
2012_1Q Mar 26, 2012. NBU cut base refi rate by 0.25% to 7.50%, introduced some rebalancing concerning mandatory reserves
Mar 12, 2012. Ukraine's president announced social spending ahead of the elections in Oct 2012
Mar 05, 2012. Global markets are enthusiastic following liquidity injection
Feb 27, 2012. Banking system liquidity is on recovery track
Feb 13, 2012. Sovereign risks are decreasing: state debt to GDP ratio is down, imports are slowing
Feb 06, 2012. Total state budget deficit is 3.4% in 2011
Jan 30, 2012. No quick results from IMF talks last week
Jan 24, 2012. Ukraine got no "New Year" gift from Gazprom
Jan 17, 2012. Rada adopts an ambitious privatisation program

Аналітичні огляди 2009 року

Аналітичні огляди 2008 року

December 23, 2008  Macro Outlook. Looking to Get Out